Uzbekistan’s GDP projected to grow by 6.7% in first half of 2025 — CERR

Data from the National Statistics Committee shows that Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 6.8% in January–March 2025. Key drivers of this growth included the services sector (+12.6%), construction (+10.8%), industry (+6.5%), and retail trade (+9.5%). During this period, household incomes rose by 9.8%.

CERR also notes increased foreign economic activity: in January–April, foreign trade turnover reached $24.6 billion, up 16.3%. Exports surged by 35.1% to $11.9 billion, while imports increased by only 2.9%. The foreign trade deficit narrowed to $846 million, compared to a deficit of $3.6 billion a year earlier.

The Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by CERR, stood at 1099 points in April — 9.9% higher than in March and 22.3% above the same period in 2024.

The forecasted GDP growth is supported by expanding industry and services, a high level of investment (over 120 trillion UZS in fixed capital during the first quarter), rising consumer demand and incomes, infrastructure improvements, and the development of regional integration.

An additional indicator is the analysis of Google search trends: from January to April, interest increased in the categories of “business and industry” (+4.1%), “shopping” (+7.6%), and “finance” (+3.7%), reflecting heightened business and consumer activity.

International institutions generally share this positive outlook. The Asian Development Bank forecasts Uzbekistan’s economic growth at 6.6% in 2025, while the IMF and the World Bank project growth of 5.9%.